PREVIEW|CFB: BOISE STATE (4-5,3-2) (-26) VS UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO (3-6,1-3)

Boise State University (-26) vs University of New Mexico

Date: Saturday November 11, 2023

Time: 8:00pm MT

Stadium: Albertsons “Bronco” Stadium (36,387)

TV: FS1

TV Commentators: Guy Harberman and Charles Arbuckle

Radio: KBOI 670 AM

Commentators: Bob Behler and Pete Cavender

 Know Thy Enemy

With the season on life support and the Broncos struggling to become bowl eligible, Boise State turns its attention to Saturday night as they welcome New Mexico to ‘the Blue.’ The Lobos hope to pull off a stunner and call a ‘code blue’ to put a TOD on the Broncos. 

The Lobos enter this one with their proverbial tails between their legs as they limp into Albertsons Stadium after a 56-14 drubbing to UNLV the last time out. On the season New Mexico is 3-6 with wins over Tennessee Tech, Umass, and Hawaii.  

Offensively, the Lobos are in their first year under new offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent who was at UAB and as all too familiar these days, he brought his quarterback Dylan Hopkins with him. The Lobos will run a balanced spread attack. On the season they have attempted 262 passes and 311 rushes. The Lobos were really excited for the return of their top runner Christian Washington, but after suffering an injury after just two games, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has emerged as their go-to back. New Mexico also has a trio of receivers that all have over 20 catches and 300 yards a piece. As a whole this offense is decent, they average almost 28 points per game and are 40% in third down conversions and will give the Broncos all they can handle. 

The defense is probably the major contributor to the lack of success this season. As a unit the Lobos are giving up over 400 yards and 35 points per game. Three times this year, including their last game, New Mexico has surrendered over 50 points to their opponent. New defensive coordinator Troy Reffertt was under the tutelage of former DC Rocky Long so the Lobos will feature the signature 3-3-5 defense. This defense only returned two starters from a year ago, so that and the new voice,  could be the leading cause to their ineptitude. 

Something I don’t normally point out, but that’s worth noting is the special teams unit for the Lobos. Last week head coach Danny Gonzales relieved the special teams coordinator of his duties after the unit gave up three huge punt returns to the Rebels. 

New Mexico is coached by Albuquerque native Danny Gonzales. Gonzales played football for UNM from 1994-1998. Gonzales is in his fourth season as head coach of the Lobos. Prior to coming to UNM Gonzales was the defensive coordinator at Arizona State under Herm Edwards. 

Saturday will be the 14th meeting between the two schools. Boise State holds a commanding 12-1 lead in the all-time series. New Mexicos’ only win came in 2015 when the Lobos shocked the Broncos 31-24 on “The Blue.” It was such a tremendous occasion for the Lobos that decided to take a team photo on the field after the game! With a win on Saturday, Boise State would extend their current winning streak to seven games which would be the all-time longest in this series. Coach Avalos has fared pretty well in games against UNM. In his two games against the Lobos he’s beaten them twice, once 37-0 and last year 31-14.  

What Happened Last Time

After a disappointing opening game against Oregon State, the Broncos turned their attention to the Lobos, in search of their first win of the season. 

Senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier threw three touchdowns, including two to redshirt sophomore wide receiver Latrell Caples, and finished the game 16-for-27 and 170 yards.

The Bronco defense kept New Mexico off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter and held the Lobos to just 64-total yards in the first half. Boise State finished the game with 12 tackles-for-loss and six sacks.

Late in the first quarter, redshirt sophomore wide receiver Cole Wright hauled in a 47-yard reception, and five plays later, Bachmeier connected with Caples for an 18-yard touchdown, the first of his career. Four drives later, a second 40-plus yard completion from Bachmeier to redshirt senior wide receiver Billy Bowens helped set up a 48-yard field goal from junior place-kicker Jonah Dalmas.

The Bronco defense got a stop on the first drive after a 10-0 lead, leading to redshirt freshman Andrew Simpson blocking a punt during the opening drive of the second half, which was recovered in the end zone by junior EDGE Deven Wright to give the Broncos a 17-0 lead.

Four drives later, Boise State added seven more points to the board on the first play of the fourth quarter when Bachmeier found redshirt junior running back George Holani for a three-yard touchdown to extend the lead to 24. The Lobos responded immediately with a touchdown from Geordon Porter on a 69-yard touchdown pass from Miles Kendrick with 14:35 left in the game.

After both teams had an opportunity to drive, the Bronco offense put together a seven-play, 31-yard drive, capped off with a four-yard touchdown pass to Caples, his second of the day. The Lobos responded with a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown for the final score of 31-14.

Players to Watch 

NEW MEXICO

Rs.SR., DYLAN HOPKINS, QB #10

Dylan Hopkins is a long way from home and you can thank two things for that; the transfer portal and offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent. When Vincent took the job at UNM this last offseason he decided to bring Dylan Hopkins with him. Hopkins, like many others, is taking advantage of his “COVID Year.” This season Hopkins has thrown for just over 1,800 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He won’t “wow” you, but really no one on this New Mexico team will, but you have to watch someone.  

SR., JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT, RB #5

Jacory Croskey-Merritt knew coming into this season that he would have to share touches with Christian Washington. But after Washington went down, Jacory was up for the task of leading the rushing attack for the Lobos. This season #5 has been one of the more dependable options for this New Mexico offense. He's averaging 75 yards per game and has scored 12 of the teams 33 touchdowns this season.  He’s averaging over 13 touches per game which isn’t crazy, but he’s made them count with this 5.5 yards per carry average. 

Rs.JR., TAVIAN COMBS, SS #7

Tavian Combs has been sidelined since the San Jose State game in mid-October. Coach Gonzales hinted this week that Combs could be available this week against Boise State. If that’s the case it would be a HUGE lift for the Lobos. Even though he’s only played in five games Combs is second on the team in tackles and only two off the team-lead. He’s an ultimate playmaker and in a season where the defense is seriously lacking, it would certainly help to have your best player out there. 

BOISE STATE 

Rs.SO., KADEN DUDLEY, RB #25

With Jeanty sidelined last week, many thought that Breezy Dubar would be the one to spell George Holani, but it was Kaden Dudley who was RB2. He only had the one carry for 18 yards, but it’s not really his rushing duties that are worth watching on Saturday. No, its more in the return game. New Mexico has been suspect this year on special teams and has given up some good returns to their opponents. A good return can flip the script on a game and Kaden Dudley might be just the guy to do it. 

Rs.JR., AUSTIN BOLT, WR #81

It feels like a long time and it has been since Austin Bolt has played football. The Borah High star made his first catch of this college career last week on a beautiful 33-yard catch and run. Bolt is coming off a gruesome injury from last season and is still making his way back to playing full-time. He won’t be the focal point of this offense this week, but you have to think they will call his number  a couple of times and with this play making ability he doesn't need a whole lot of opportunities to make something happen. Don’t be surprised if Bolt makes a HUGE play this week.

Rs.SO., ANDREW SIMPSON, LB #10

I just really like watching Andrew Simpson play football. Last week against Fresno State he yet again had a strong performance and probably his best performance of the year. His 12 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss led the defense. He was held without a sack or partial-sack for the first time in four games, but look for that to change this week. New Mexico has done a good job at keeping their QB upright, but Simpson “down hill” style of play should create some opportunities to get to the quarterback. 

Rev's Route to a Bronco Win

Seize the Opportunity

Bronco Nation woke up Monday morning to the news that their top receiver, Eric McAlister had chosen to, in the words of coach Avalos, “No longer compete as a member of our program,” and that he would indeed enter the portal on December 4th. No matter your opinions on this issue, it leaves a big hole for someone to fill. Guys like Austin Bolt, Prince Strachan, and even Chase Penry to step up and produce. Last week McAlister was targeted 19 times, which led the nation. Now those targets are going to go to someone else. Who will it be?    

Special, but not Memorable.  

I don’t know for a fact, but I can speculate that after Boise State scored that touchdown, to pull within 3-points and with just seconds remaining that when Fresno State got the ball back they were just going to run the clock out and head to halftime. I think everyone thought that. Except someone on the Boise State sideline didn’t get the memo and the Broncos, for whatever reason, decided to “squib kick” the ball and allow the Bulldogs a chance at a return. Well we all know what happened 95 yards later and all the Boise State momentum was gone. Last year the Broncos also gave up a kickoff return touchdown to the Lobos. This week the special teams can not be memorable if the Broncos want to win. 

Pressure, Pressure, Pressure

Here’s this for a cherry picked stat: The Broncos are 2-0 when they record three or more sacks. Well to be fair, Boise State is actually 3-2, (4-1 if they don’t blow a 20-point lead with six minutes left) when they record more than 1 sack. Regardless of what the stats say, Boise State has to get more consistent hits on the opposing quarterback in hopes of forcing a bad pass, forcing a fumble, or just causing negative yardage. 

Revs Rant and Prediction:

Well hmmm…. I had a really good feeling when Maddux Madsen threw that touchdown pass to Billy Bownes with just seven second left in the first half to draw Boise State within three points heading into halftime. I had a really good feeling that since the Broncos were going to get the ball to start the second half that they would find a way to take the lead and never give it back. But then the Bulldogs took the ensuing kickoff 95-yards and took a ten point lead into the locker room. After that the Broncos just looked like they were step behind and yet again couldn’t make the stop when they needed to. 

This season has really lacked the consistency that we are used to seeing and it takes a toll. This week the Broncos are massive favorites and usually I would be really excited to see them whoop up on a bad New Mexico team. However, I think Boise State might be feeling the weight of this season a bit. This game is going to be sneaky competitive and if Boise State does come out on top it won’t be by almost four touchdowns. I think Boise State does just enough to outlast the Lobos. 

Boise State 34, New Mexico 28